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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chonburi FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Buriram United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chonburi FC beat Buriram United 4-2 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 0.93 xG and Buriram United 1.79 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Chonburi FC beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.08 against Buriram United attack 1.38 / defence 0.91, drawn from 10/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 16% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 55%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Chonburi FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 40%, Buriram United 90%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chonburi FC's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Buriram United's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.80 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Chonburi FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Buriram United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights