🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as BG Pathum United edge out Chonburi FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BG Pathum United beat Chonburi FC 1-2 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.06 xG and BG Pathum United 1.18 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. BG Pathum United outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.00 against BG Pathum United attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 30% | Draw 33% | BG Pathum United 36%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 33%, BG Pathum United 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chonburi FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

BG Pathum United's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights