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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Uthai Thani 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chiangrai United beat Uthai Thani 1-0 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.80 xG and Uthai Thani 0.99 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Uthai Thani landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.97 / defence 0.77 against Uthai Thani attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 55% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 20%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 46%, Uthai Thani 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (50 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Uthai Thani's trading profile (50 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.08 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights