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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Rayong FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chiangrai United beat Rayong FC 1-0 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.79 xG and Rayong FC 0.78 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.84 / defence 0.73 against Rayong FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.31, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 61% | Draw 23% | Rayong FC 16%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 40%, Rayong FC 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Rayong FC's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.04 PPG, Rayong FC 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Rayong FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights