Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Ratchaburi travel to Leo Chiangrai Stadium to take on Chiangrai United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chiangrai United have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United's home record at Leo Chiangrai Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Chiangrai United) versus 1.70 (Ratchaburi). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Chiangrai United, 3 for Ratchaburi and 3 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 10 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Chiangrai United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 61% versus Ratchaburi 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 32% | Ratchaburi 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.33 xG and Ratchaburi 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.913 / defence 0.810 | Ratchaburi attack 1.064 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Chiangrai United games / 31 Ratchaburi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 45% | Draw 29% | Ratchaburi 26%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Ratchaburi 3.85. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Chiangrai United 40% | Ratchaburi 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Leo Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 45% | Draw 29% | Ratchaburi 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Chiangrai United 1.33 / Ratchaburi 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.913 / def 0.810 | Ratchaburi attack 1.064 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Ratchaburi xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 45% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
Record (10 meetings): Chiangrai United 4W | Draws 3 | Ratchaburi 3W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chiangrai United's attack rating (0.91) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
45%
2.23
29%
3.42
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.27
0.94
Ratchaburi xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
7%
14.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.94 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 10W 13D 8L from 31 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 18W 5D 8L across 31 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chiangrai United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 8W 3D 5L from 16 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 10W 1D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.94 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.81 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 10W 13D 8L in their last 31 games (1.39 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 18W 5D 8L in their last 31 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.69 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chiangrai United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chiangrai United
3
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 38%, Ratchaburi 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Chiangrai United) and 62% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 62% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 62% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.