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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Ratchaburi defy the odds to beat Chiangrai United 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Chiangrai United 0-1 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.66 xG and Ratchaburi 1.10 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chiangrai United fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.93 / defence 0.71 against Ratchaburi attack 1.30 / defence 1.10, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 24%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Ratchaburi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 44%, Ratchaburi 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.10 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights