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Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Prachuap 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chiangrai United beat Prachuap 2-1 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.54 xG and Prachuap 1.22 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.95 / defence 0.89 against Prachuap attack 1.01 / defence 0.98, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 43% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 28%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 45%, Prachuap 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Prachuap's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.19 PPG, Prachuap 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights