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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Port FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chiangrai United beat Port FC 1-0 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.30 xG and Port FC 1.27 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Port FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Port FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 36% | Draw 29% | Port FC 35%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 44%, Port FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Port FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Chiangrai United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights