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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chiangrai United beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.63 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.55 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.79 / defence 0.69 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.67 / defence 1.23, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 63% | Draw 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 12%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 41%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.19 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights