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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chiangrai United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chiangrai United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-0 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.36 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.82 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.86 / defence 0.80 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 47% | Draw 34% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 20%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 41%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.26 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights