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Dominant Chiangrai United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nakhon Pathom.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chiangrai United beat Nakhon Pathom 3-0 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.32 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.01 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Chiangrai United beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nakhon Pathom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.81 / defence 0.83 against Nakhon Pathom attack 1.02 / defence 0.92, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 42% | Draw 31% | Nakhon Pathom 27%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 43%, Nakhon Pathom 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.10 PPG, Nakhon Pathom 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights