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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Muangthong United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Chiangrai United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Muangthong United beat Chiangrai United 0-2 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.46 xG and Muangthong United 0.81 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Chiangrai United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Muangthong United outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.88 / defence 0.76 against Muangthong United attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 33% | Muangthong United 18%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Muangthong United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 39%, Muangthong United 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Muangthong United's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.29 PPG, Muangthong United 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights