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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chiangrai United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Muangthong United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chiangrai United beat Muangthong United 3-1 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.01 xG and Muangthong United 1.12 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Chiangrai United beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.69 / defence 1.05 against Muangthong United attack 0.93 / defence 0.87, drawn from 44/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 30% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 35%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Chiangrai United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 43%, Muangthong United 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (42 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Muangthong United's trading profile (42 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Chiangrai United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm. Muangthong United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights