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Chiangrai United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kanchanaburi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chiangrai United beat Kanchanaburi 2-0 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 2.11 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.64 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.86 / defence 0.88 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.65 / defence 1.63, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 70% | Draw 22% | Kanchanaburi 8%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 25%, Kanchanaburi 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.25 PPG, Kanchanaburi 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights