Chiangrai United vs Buriram United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chiangrai United host Buriram United at Leo Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 January 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Chiangrai United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Chiangrai United have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Buriram United have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Buriram United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Buriram United have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Buriram United are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Buriram United, who boast 8 victories compared to 0 for Chiangrai United.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 1–8 with Buriram United winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Buriram United in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 63% and Buriram United 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 33% | Buriram United 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.44 xG and Buriram United 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.908 / defence 0.934 | Buriram United attack 1.188 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Chiangrai United games / 30 Buriram United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 42% | Draw 30% | Buriram United 28%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Buriram United 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chiangrai United are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Buriram United (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chiangrai United 40% | Buriram United 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Leo Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 42% | Draw 30% | Buriram United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Chiangrai United 1.44 / Buriram United 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.908 / def 0.934 | Buriram United attack 1.188 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Buriram United xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Buriram United kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Buriram United is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Buriram United part of?
Chiangrai United vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 42% chance of winning, Buriram United a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chiangrai United and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Buriram United?
Record (10 meetings): Chiangrai United 0W | Draws 2 | Buriram United 8W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Buriram United in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Chiangrai United vs Buriram United?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.29
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.57
1.13
Buriram United xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
7%
15.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.13 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Chiangrai United have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 9W 13D 8L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. Chiangrai United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Buriram United's form line: 22W 4D 4L from 30 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. Buriram United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chiangrai United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chiangrai United have posted 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L).
On the road, Buriram United have gone 10W 2D 3L from 15 away games — 2.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.53 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Buriram United in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Pre-Season
Buriram United
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 9W 13D 8L in their last 30 games (1.33 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 22W 4D 4L in their last 30 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.60 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.13 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Buriram United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Buriram United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Buriram United go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2025, when Buriram United won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Chiangrai United
2
Draws
8
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 0, Buriram United have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Buriram United 8-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 40%, Buriram United 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Chiangrai United) and 80% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 67% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 80% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Buriram United tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.