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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Buriram United defy the odds to beat Chiangrai United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Chiangrai United 1-2 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.63 xG and Buriram United 1.51 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.00 / defence 0.87 against Buriram United attack 1.22 / defence 0.98, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 40% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 34%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Buriram United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 47%, Buriram United 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Buriram United's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights