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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out BG Pathum United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chiangrai United beat BG Pathum United 1-0 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.31 xG and BG Pathum United 1.11 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. BG Pathum United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.85 / defence 0.90 against BG Pathum United attack 1.04 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 40% | Draw 31% | BG Pathum United 30%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 45%, BG Pathum United 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

BG Pathum United's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Chiangrai United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights