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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Uthai Thani.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Uthai Thani 5-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.20 xG and Uthai Thani 1.09 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.34 / defence 0.88 against Uthai Thani attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 62% | Draw 21% | Uthai Thani 17%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 71%, Uthai Thani 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Uthai Thani's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.73 average — above their attacking norm. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights