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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Rayong FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Rayong FC 2-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.98 xG and Rayong FC 1.15 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.45 / defence 0.97 against Rayong FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.90, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 54% | Draw 26% | Rayong FC 20%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 73%, Rayong FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Rayong FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.61 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights