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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Rayong FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Rayong FC 2-1 at Khao Kradong Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 3.69 xG and Rayong FC 0.62 xG, a combined 4.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Buriram United fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.79 / defence 0.64 against Rayong FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.24, drawn from 55/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 90% | Draw 7% | Rayong FC 3%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 90%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 65%, Rayong FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.

Rayong FC's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights