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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Prachuap.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Prachuap 2-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.63 xG and Prachuap 1.17 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Prachuap landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.55 / defence 0.88 against Prachuap attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 67% | Draw 19% | Prachuap 13%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 73%, Prachuap 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Prachuap's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights