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Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Port FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Port FC 1-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.41 xG and Port FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Port FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.30 / defence 0.86 against Port FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.71, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 44% | Draw 33% | Port FC 23%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 74%, Port FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Port FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.67. Form held, and they took the win. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights