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Shock result as Port FC defy the odds to beat Buriram United 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Buriram United 0-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 3.33 xG and Port FC 0.70 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Buriram United fell 3.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.96 / defence 0.57 against Port FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 86% | Draw 10% | Port FC 4%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 86%. Instead the game produced a Port FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 4% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 63%, Port FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Port FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.78. Form was overturned, with Port FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights