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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.26 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.93 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.40 / defence 0.94 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 66% | Draw 22% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 13%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 74%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.53 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights