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Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5-0 at Khao Kradong Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 3.54 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.69 xG, a combined 4.23. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.75 / defence 0.68 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.23, drawn from 53/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 88% | Draw 8% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 88%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 60%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 4.08 average — above their attacking norm. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights