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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Muangthong United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Muangthong United 2-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 3.40 xG and Muangthong United 0.78 xG, a combined 4.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Buriram United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.83 / defence 0.80 against Muangthong United attack 0.86 / defence 1.29, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 85% | Draw 11% | Muangthong United 4%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 85%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 70%, Muangthong United 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Muangthong United's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.46 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights