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Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Muangthong United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Muangthong United 1-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.71 xG and Muangthong United 0.73 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Buriram United fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.49 / defence 0.69 against Muangthong United attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 78% | Draw 16% | Muangthong United 6%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 78%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 60%, Muangthong United 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.

Muangthong United's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights