Buriram United 1-0 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (78%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Buriram United face Muangthong United.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Buriram United and Muangthong United meet at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 December 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Chang Arena, Buriram United have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena.
Muangthong United (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Buriram United's 2.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Muangthong United's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Buriram United have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 6 meetings, with Muangthong United managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 3–1 with Buriram United winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Buriram United and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Buriram United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Muangthong United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 49% versus Muangthong United 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 60% | Muangthong United 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 2.71 xG and Muangthong United 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.491 / defence 0.692 | Muangthong United attack 0.917 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.150. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.491 — their λ of 2.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Buriram United's defence rating of 0.692 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Buriram United games / 43 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 78% | Draw 16% | Muangthong United 6%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.28 | Draw 6.25 | Muangthong United 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (78%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Buriram United 50% | Muangthong United 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 78% | Draw 16% | Muangthong United 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 50% | xG Buriram United 2.71 / Muangthong United 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.491 / def 0.692 | Muangthong United attack 0.917 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.734 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.71
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Muangthong United xG
50%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Muangthong United kick off?
Buriram United vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Muangthong United?
Buriram United 1 - 0 Muangthong United.
Where is Buriram United vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Muangthong United part of?
Buriram United vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 78% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 6% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Buriram United and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Muangthong United?
Record (6 meetings): Buriram United 3W | Draws 3 | Muangthong United 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Muangthong United in?
Buriram United (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Muangthong United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Buriram United's attack at 1.49x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Muangthong United's attack (0.92x) against Buriram United's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
78%
1.29
16%
6.31
6%
15.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.71
Buriram United xG
Total xG
3.44
0.73
Muangthong United xG
1.29
78%
Home win
6.31
16%
Draw
15.70
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
7%
14.98
Win to Nil
38%
2.66
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 2.71 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.73 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Muangthong United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Buriram United's recent record stands at 30W 12D 1L from 43 games, a 2.37 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Muangthong United, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 13L across 43 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Muangthong United heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 15W 5D 0L from 20 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Muangthong United's away record stands at 6W 5D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Buriram United are averaging 2.58 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.88 scored and 1.37 conceded. Muangthong United's attacking output running into Buriram United's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United in 67%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 30W 12D 1L in their last 43 games (2.37 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 21W 9D 13L in their last 43 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Muangthong United away?
Buriram United's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.50 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Buriram United have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 0-5 on 22 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Buriram United have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Muangthong United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Buriram United
3
Draws
0
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Muangthong United?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 7, Muangthong United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Buriram United 2-1 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Muangthong United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Buriram United, 80% for Muangthong United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Buriram United and 70% for Muangthong United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Muangthong United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Buriram United's games and 80% of Muangthong United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Buriram United vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Buriram United's matches and 70% of Muangthong United's.
Do Buriram United and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Muangthong United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Muangthong United 1-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.71 xG and Muangthong United 0.73 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Buriram United fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.49 / defence 0.69 against Muangthong United attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 78% | Draw 16% | Muangthong United 6%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 78%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 60%, Muangthong United 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Muangthong United's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.