Buriram United 2-2 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Buriram United face Chonburi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Buriram United and Chonburi FC meet at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 October 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Buriram United have posted 9W 0D 1L at Chang Arena — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chonburi FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Buriram United. A 1.20 PPG lead over Chonburi FC (2.30 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Buriram United lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 2–0 with Buriram United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Buriram United half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 51% versus Chonburi FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 60% | Chonburi FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 2.47 xG and Chonburi FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.316 / defence 0.784 | Chonburi FC attack 1.087 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.225. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — their λ of 2.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Buriram United's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Buriram United games / 35 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 68% | Draw 18% | Chonburi FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Chonburi FC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.47 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.52 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Buriram United 20% | Chonburi FC 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 68% | Draw 18% | Chonburi FC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 60% | xG Buriram United 2.47 / Chonburi FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.316 / def 0.784 | Chonburi FC attack 1.087 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Chonburi FC xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Buriram United vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Chonburi FC?
Buriram United 2 - 2 Chonburi FC.
Where is Buriram United vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Chonburi FC part of?
Buriram United vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 68% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Buriram United and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Chonburi FC?
Record (4 meetings): Buriram United 3W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 1W.
What form are Buriram United and Chonburi FC in?
Buriram United (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Chonburi FC's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.47. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (1.09x) against Buriram United's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.1%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
68%
1.46
18%
5.57
14%
7.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Buriram United xG
Total xG
3.52
1.04
Chonburi FC xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.57
18%
Draw
7.26
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
8%
11.87
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
1%
86.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.04 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Chonburi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Buriram United come into this having played 35 games, going 27W 6D 2L for 2.49 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chonburi FC sit at 1.37 PPG from 35 outings (14W 6D 15L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Buriram United's home form reads 14W 2D 1L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Chonburi FC have taken 1.06 points per game from 17 outings (5W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Buriram United are averaging 2.43 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.46 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 27W 6D 2L in their last 35 games (2.49 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 14W 6D 15L in their last 35 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Chonburi FC away?
Buriram United's home record (2.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.59 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 5-0 on 14 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Buriram United have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Buriram United
2
Draws
2
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 4, Chonburi FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Buriram United 5-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Chonburi FC?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 76% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 47%, Chonburi FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Buriram United) and 53% (Chonburi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Buriram United's recent matches and 59% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Buriram United's matches and 53% of Chonburi FC's.
Do Buriram United and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United and Chonburi FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United and Chonburi FC finished level at 2-2 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.47 xG and Chonburi FC 1.04 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Chonburi FC outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.32 / defence 0.78 against Chonburi FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 68% | Draw 18% | Chonburi FC 14%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 60%, Chonburi FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Buriram United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.