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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 8-1 hammering of Chiangrai United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Chiangrai United 8-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.84 xG and Chiangrai United 1.04 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 8-1 for 9 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 6.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.27 / defence 0.82 against Chiangrai United attack 1.15 / defence 0.97, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 55% | Draw 25% | Chiangrai United 20%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 67%, Chiangrai United 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 3.26 average — above their attacking norm. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 8 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights