🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 8-0 hammering of Chiangrai United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Chiangrai United 8-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.47 xG and Chiangrai United 0.59 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 8-0 for 8 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 5.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.43 / defence 0.63 against Chiangrai United attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 78% | Draw 16% | Chiangrai United 6%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 59%, Chiangrai United 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 8 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights