🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Bangkok United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Buriram United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bangkok United beat Buriram United 0-2 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.80 xG and Bangkok United 0.80 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Buriram United fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Bangkok United outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.57 / defence 0.83 against Bangkok United attack 0.89 / defence 0.72, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 61% | Draw 23% | Bangkok United 16%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Bangkok United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 69%, Bangkok United 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Bangkok United's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Buriram United 2.44 PPG, Bangkok United 2.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bangkok United win broke the near-deadlock. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bangkok United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights