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Poisson rates Buriram United at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC encounter.

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Match Analysis

Buriram United host Ayutthaya FC at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2027 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Buriram United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Chang Arena, Buriram United have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Buriram United are significantly better at Chang Arena than their overall form suggests.

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ayutthaya FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Ayutthaya FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Buriram United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Buriram United have won 2, Ayutthaya FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Buriram United winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Buriram United trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Ayutthaya FC trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Buriram United 60% and Ayutthaya FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 70% | Ayutthaya FC 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.96 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.227 / defence 0.927 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.989 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Buriram United games / 30 Ayutthaya FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Buriram United 60% | Draw 25% | Ayutthaya FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Ayutthaya FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Buriram United 40% | Ayutthaya FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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