Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Buriram United host Ayutthaya FC at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Chang Arena, Buriram United have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Buriram United are significantly better at Chang Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ayutthaya FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Buriram United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Buriram United have won 2, Ayutthaya FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Buriram United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Buriram United trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Ayutthaya FC trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Buriram United 61% and Ayutthaya FC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 71% | Ayutthaya FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.76 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.201 / defence 0.942 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.974 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Buriram United games / 31 Ayutthaya FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Buriram United 55% | Draw 25% | Ayutthaya FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Ayutthaya FC 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Buriram United 40% | Ayutthaya FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 55% | Draw 25% | Ayutthaya FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Buriram United 1.76 / Ayutthaya FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.201 / def 0.942 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.974 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Ayutthaya FC xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Chang Arena.
Where is Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 55% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (2 meetings): Buriram United 2W | Draws 0 | Ayutthaya FC 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC in?
Buriram United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Ayutthaya FC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
55%
1.83
25%
4.07
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.76
1.00
Ayutthaya FC xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
4%
27.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.00 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Buriram United's recent record stands at 23W 4D 4L from 31 games, a 2.35 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 14L across 31 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 1.22 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ayutthaya FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 12W 2D 1L from 15 games — 2.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ayutthaya FC's away record stands at 6W 4D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Buriram United are averaging 2.55 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.16 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Ayutthaya FC in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Early Season
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 23W 4D 4L in their last 31 games (2.35 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Buriram United's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.53 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Ayutthaya FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ayutthaya FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Buriram United
0
Draws
0
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 2, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Buriram United 2-0 Ayutthaya FC.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 53%, Ayutthaya FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Buriram United) and 47% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ayutthaya FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Ayutthaya FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Buriram United's recent matches and 53% of Ayutthaya FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Buriram United's recent games and 47% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.