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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.57 xG and Ratchaburi 1.69 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.12 / defence 1.16 against Ratchaburi attack 1.29 / defence 0.97, drawn from 54/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 34% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 39%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 50%, Ratchaburi 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BG Pathum United's trading profile (52 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (52 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BG Pathum United 1.73 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights