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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Ratchaburi defy the odds to beat BG Pathum United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat BG Pathum United 1-2 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.85 xG and Ratchaburi 1.08 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. BG Pathum United fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.90 / defence 0.89 against Ratchaburi attack 1.02 / defence 1.27, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 54% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 21%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Ratchaburi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 56%, Ratchaburi 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BG Pathum United's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Ratchaburi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights