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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant BG Pathum United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Prachuap.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BG Pathum United beat Prachuap 3-0 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.60 xG and Prachuap 1.22 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. BG Pathum United beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Prachuap landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.05 / defence 1.12 against Prachuap attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 44% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 27%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 48%, Prachuap 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BG Pathum United's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Prachuap's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BG Pathum United 1.73 PPG, Prachuap 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BG Pathum United win broke the near-deadlock. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights