🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as BG Pathum United edge out Port FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BG Pathum United beat Port FC 1-0 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.28 xG and Port FC 1.22 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Port FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Port FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.78, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 37% | Draw 28% | Port FC 34%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 56%, Port FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BG Pathum United's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Port FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BG Pathum United 1.68 PPG, Port FC 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BG Pathum United win broke the near-deadlock. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights