BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours BG Pathum United (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as BG Pathum United face Lamphun Warrior.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Lamphun Warrior travel to True BG Stadium to take on BG Pathum United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 December 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
BG Pathum United — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. BG Pathum United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
BG Pathum United's home record at True BG Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1W 7D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
BG Pathum United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. BG Pathum United register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lamphun Warrior in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for BG Pathum United, 2 for Lamphun Warrior and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
BG Pathum United in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 50% versus Lamphun Warrior 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 47% | Lamphun Warrior 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.53 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 1.073 / defence 1.013 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.969 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 0.956. Data: 31 BG Pathum United games / 30 Lamphun Warrior games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 48% | Draw 31% | Lamphun Warrior 20%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Lamphun Warrior 5.00. BG Pathum United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BG Pathum United 60% | Lamphun Warrior 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: True BG Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 48% | Draw 31% | Lamphun Warrior 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG BG Pathum United 1.53 / Lamphun Warrior 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 1.073 / def 1.013 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.969 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.488 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Lamphun Warrior xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 27 December 2026 at True BG Stadium.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at True BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 48% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (8 meetings): BG Pathum United 4W | Draws 2 | Lamphun Warrior 2W.
What form are BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates BG Pathum United's attack at 1.07x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus BG Pathum United's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
48%
2.07
31%
3.19
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.47
0.94
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
4%
22.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 0.94 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
BG Pathum United come into this having played 30 games, going 14W 10D 6L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for BG Pathum United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lamphun Warrior sit at 0.97 PPG from 30 outings (4W 17D 9L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. Lamphun Warrior haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
BG Pathum United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
BG Pathum United's home form reads 9W 3D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamphun Warrior have taken 0.87 points per game from 15 outings (2W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.17 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior in 67%.
Defensively: BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 14W 10D 6L in their last 30 games (1.73 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 17D 9L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
BG Pathum United's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 2.00 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.87 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2023, when Lamphun Warrior won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BG Pathum United's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
BG Pathum United
2
Draws
2
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 4, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 BG Pathum United.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 53%, Lamphun Warrior 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (BG Pathum United) and 40% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of BG Pathum United's games and 60% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 40% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.