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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as BG Pathum United edge out Lamphun Warrior 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BG Pathum United beat Lamphun Warrior 2-1 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.58 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.19 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.94 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 45% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 27%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 48%, Lamphun Warrior 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BG Pathum United's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights