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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant BG Pathum United run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Khon Kaen United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BG Pathum United beat Khon Kaen United 4-1 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.87 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.85 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. BG Pathum United beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.82 / defence 0.97 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.76 / defence 1.29, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 60% | Draw 24% | Khon Kaen United 16%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 56%, Khon Kaen United 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BG Pathum United's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Khon Kaen United's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights