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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Uthai Thani defy the odds to beat Bangkok United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Uthai Thani beat Bangkok United 1-2 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 2.37 xG and Uthai Thani 1.33 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bangkok United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.33 / defence 1.20 against Uthai Thani attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 59% | Draw 22% | Uthai Thani 19%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Uthai Thani win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 67%, Uthai Thani 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bangkok United's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Uthai Thani's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Uthai Thani winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights