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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bangkok United edge out Rayong FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bangkok United beat Rayong FC 3-2 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 2.02 xG and Rayong FC 1.16 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bangkok United beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rayong FC outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.14 / defence 0.92 against Rayong FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 55% | Draw 25% | Rayong FC 20%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 67%, Rayong FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bangkok United's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Rayong FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Bangkok United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rayong FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights