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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Bangkok United run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Prachuap.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bangkok United beat Prachuap 4-1 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.72 xG and Prachuap 1.72 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bangkok United beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.23 / defence 1.23 against Prachuap attack 1.16 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 36% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 36%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 66%, Prachuap 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bangkok United's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Prachuap's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bangkok United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm. Prachuap (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights