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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bangkok United edge out Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bangkok United beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 2.53 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.95 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bangkok United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Nong Bua Pitchaya landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.11 / defence 1.00 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.78 / defence 1.38, drawn from 51/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 71% | Draw 17% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 11%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 64%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bangkok United's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights