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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bangkok United edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bangkok United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 2.20 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.80 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.13 / defence 0.88 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 68% | Draw 21% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 11%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 58%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bangkok United's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights