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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bangkok United edge out Lamphun Warrior 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bangkok United beat Lamphun Warrior 4-3 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 2.87 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.00 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Bangkok United beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lamphun Warrior outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.28 / defence 1.05 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.87 / defence 1.48, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 74% | Draw 17% | Lamphun Warrior 9%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 74%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 66%, Lamphun Warrior 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bangkok United's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bangkok United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights