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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bangkok United and Kanchanaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Bangkok United and Kanchanaburi drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 2.62 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.99 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bangkok United fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.26 / defence 1.13 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.73 / defence 1.34, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 71% | Draw 18% | Kanchanaburi 11%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 60%, Kanchanaburi 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bangkok United's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights