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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bangkok United edge out Chonburi FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bangkok United beat Chonburi FC 1-0 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.85 xG and Chonburi FC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bangkok United fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Chonburi FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.11 / defence 1.15 against Chonburi FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 55% | Draw 23% | Chonburi FC 22%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 53%, Chonburi FC 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bangkok United's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Chonburi FC's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights