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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bangkok United and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bangkok United and Chiangrai United finished level at 1-1 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.77 xG and Chiangrai United 1.34 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.34 / defence 1.16 against Chiangrai United attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 46% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 27%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 64%, Chiangrai United 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bangkok United's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights