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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bangkok United edge out Chiangrai United 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bangkok United beat Chiangrai United 3-2 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 2.12 xG and Chiangrai United 0.74 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bangkok United beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chiangrai United outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.04 / defence 0.93 against Chiangrai United attack 0.66 / defence 1.28, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 69% | Draw 20% | Chiangrai United 11%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 60%, Chiangrai United 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bangkok United's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Bangkok United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights